Europe’s benchmark front-month TTF gas futures contract has been trading at over €70 per megawatt hour ($23.80 per million Btu), marking its highest level since January 2023 amid renewed US-Iran hostilities.
Market observers agree that a ramp-up of LNG exports from QatarEnergy’s 12 undamaged liquefaction trains at its Ras Laffan liquefaction complex will take weeks, even after the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to vessels. This means that even if a restart were to occur at the start of the fourth quarter, material flows may only occur at the start of next year.
“We had expected exports from the unaffected trains [at Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefaction complex] to normalize by around October 2026, which may now be less likely given new geopolitical developments,” Sadnan Ali, global oil and gas analyst at HSBC bank, tells Energy Intelligence.
Qatar is unlikely to ramp up LNG exports until after the US midterm elections in early November, a European gas trader notes.
Notably, QatarEnergy in late August extended its force majeure notice on LNG deliveries to Italian utility Edison until early November.
Some European traders are even considering that Qatar’s LNG exports may remain constrained for much of 2027.
“We believe it is prudent to assume no meaningful volumes during the first quarter and only limited volumes during the remainder of 2027,” Simone Turri, head of Switzerland-based trader Met Group’s gas desk for Western Europe, tells Energy Intelligence.
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